5 Reasons the Minoan Eruption May Have Been Worse Than We Thought - And Might Happen Again

No one disputes that the eruption of the volcanic island of Santorini (called Thera in ancient times) was a catastrophe on a massive scale, affecting large areas of the Aegean and linked to the decline of the powerful Minoan civilization. But could it have been much worse than originally thought? And more importantly, could it happen again?

1. Radiocarbon studies paint a picture much more grim than previously believed.

The most accepted date of the eruption, based on carbon dating of pumice deposited during the first stage, traditionally thought less destructive, is a little before 1600 B.C.E., although archaeological evidence is still debated. But those same radiocarbon studies paint a picture much more grim than originally thought.  Carrying a heavy rain of hot pumice, the 25-mile high eruption column spread a blanket up to 7 meters thick not just on Santorini itself, but across the entire Aegean and possibly beyond. Most terrifying of all, everything below the layer is older, and everything above it, much younger. But the Santorini volcano was only getting started.

2. Much of the eruption occurred below the sea surface, creating a tsunami of enormous size.

Archaeologists have long known that a tsunami accompanied the second stage of the eruption, and that some amount of damage was done to the Minoan civilization on its home island of Crete to the south.  But more recent studies of sea deposits show that the massive wave flooded coastal areas as far away as modern Israel, and throughout the Mediterranean. How is this possible? Because much of the eruption occurred below the sea surface, creating a tsunami of enormous size, as hundreds of cubic kilometers of sea water collapsed into the massive undersea caldera.

3. The sheer volume of the eruption was much greater than earlier believed

In the 1990's, geologists estimated that 39 cubic kilometers of magma and rock had erupted from the volcano around 1600 B.C., based on fallout observed on land.  But new evidence of the marine deposits resulted in an increased approximation of 60 cubic kilometers. These revised estimates place the Santorini eruption as the second largest in recorded history. More recent studies have produced even larger estimates of the kinetic power of the eruption, a blast with the energy of hundreds of atomic bombs occurring within a fraction of a second, possibly making it the largest ever.

4. The environmental damage may have been of literally Biblical proportions.

The eruption appears to have substantially turned the course of the previously stable Mediterranean climate. The after effects during the years following the eruption may have killed far more people than the event itself, and lead to the downfall of civilizations, as well as the providing the basis for the Biblical plagues, famine and Exodus narratives.

5. Could it happen again?

Short answer, definitely, but the big question is when. Minor eruptions occur fairly frequently on Santorini, but eruptions like the Minoan event are of a much grander scale, classed as plinian eruptions, and occur after a long period of subsurface dome building. This took thousands of years before the Minoan blast, but Santorini is by far not the most monitored active volcano on the planet.   The Minoans appeared to have had enough notice to evacuate Crete before the blast.  Given what we now know of its potential, it is certain we should keep a closer eye on Thera.

J.P. Jamin is an historical novelist who's latest book The Seas Come Still is based upon the fall of the Minoan civilization.